On April 15, UMass Amherst Economics Department Graduate Student Thomas Herndon and Professors Michael Ash and Robert Pollin published a working paper titled, Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth? A Critique of Reinhart and Rogoff. In the paper the authors examine Reinhart and Rogoff’s research on the relationship between public debt and GDP growth for advanced economies in the post-World War II period. Reinhart and Rogoff argue that the rate of economic growth for these countries has consistently declined precipitously once the level of government debt exceeds 90 percent of the country’s GDP. In recent years, Reinhart and Rogoff’s results have been highly influential as support for austerity policies in both Europe and the United States.
Herndon, Ash and Pollin find that a series of data errors and unsupportable statistical techniques led to an inaccurate representation of the actual relationship between public debt levels and GDP growth. They find that when properly calculated, average GDP growth for advanced economies at public debt-to-GDP ratios over 90 percent is not dramatically different than when debt-to-GDP ratios are lower.
Almost immediately the Herndon, Ash, Pollin findings went viral with lots of social media buzz on Twitter and Facebook. The story has garnered extensive national and international coverage. Below is a list of media coverage to date.
New York Times, 5/22/13
A Keynesian Victory, but Austerity Stands Firm
Socialist Worker, 5/22/13
The end of austerity?
New York Times, 5/21/13
Sharing Abuse Fairly
The New American, 5/21/13
If This Is the End of “Austerity,” When Did Austerity Begin?
All Africa, 5/20/13
Nigeria: Why Country Needs Expansionary Macroeconomic Policies
Business World, 5/18/13
Ultra Mega Data and Their Pitfalls
Daily Star, 5/18/13
Economists aren’t humble, so don’t believe everything they say
The Reporter, 5/18/13
What use are economists?
New York Times, 5/17/13
Europe’s Economics Chief Tries to Peel Off ‘Mr. Austerity’ Label
The Christian Science Monitor, 5/17/13
EU austerity hawks shrug off criticism of flawed academic paper
Orlando Sentinel, 5/17/13
‘I know it when I see it’
Jamaica Gleaner, 5/17/13
Fake Deficit Hawks As Ideological Austerity-Pushers
Oman Tribune, 5/1/13
Errors mar influential economic study on austerity
Huffington Post, 4/30/13
2 More Grad Students Claim To Find Another Flaw In Reinhart-Rogoff Research
Boston.com, 4/30/13
UMass economists take on Harvard
The Wall Street Journal, 4/30/13
The Reinhart and Rogoff Distraction
WBUR, 4/30/13
The Economics Earthquake
The New Yorker, 4/29/13
The Rogoff and Reinhart Controversy: A Summing Up
New York Magazine, 4/29/13
How the Media Broke Up With Austerity
Huffington Post, 4/29/13
Marathon Bombings Suspect to ‘Reinhart-Rogoff-gate’: Two Very Different UMASS Students Made News Last Week
Quartz, 4/29/13
The grad student who exposed Reinhart and Rogoff: They still can’t get their facts straight
New York Times, 4/29/13
Debt and Growth – A Response to Reinhart and Rogoff
Republican, 4/29/13
UMass Thomas Herndon shines light on austerity and ‘Growth in a Time of Debt’
The Washington Post, 4/28/13
The economist whodunit
Republican, 4/28/13
Editorial: UMass posts win over Harvard in most esoteric arena
Hindu Business Line, 4/28/13
Research blues in social sciences
The Spectator, 4/27/13
Reinhart and Rogoff’s faulty spreadsheet doesn’t destroy the case for austerity
Aljazeera, 4/27/13
Austerity debunked
The Sydney Morning Herald, 4/27/13
Austerity slips out of fashion amid growing recession risk
Financial Post, 4/25/13
Despite Rogoff/Reinhart data scandal, high debt still a problem
The Globe and Mail, 4/25/13
A simple data error, and Europe’s austerity pain
The Chronicle of Higher Education, 4/24/13
‘They Said at First They Hand’t Made a Spreadsheet Error, When They Had’
The Cap Times, 4/24/13
John Nichols: Paul Ryan’s austerity agenda is based on serious mistake
The Washington Post, 4/24/13
The Reinhart/Rogoff Brawl
MSN, 4/24/13
Colbert turns austerity movement into punch line
MSNBC, 4/24/13
How an Excel spreadsheet error hurt the economy
Debunked: The Harvard study that Republicans used to push austerity
National Review, 4/24/13
A Flawed Landmark
The Irish Times, 4/24/13
Economics: Austerity loses an article of faith
Raw Story, 4/24/13
Colbert takes on UMass ‘Poindexter’ who debunked pro-austerity study
Chicago Tribune, 4/23/13
Half-baked theories continue to direct global history
The Wall Street Journal, 4/23/13
The Doctoral Student Who ‘Happed’ Reinhart and Rogoff
The Washington Post, 4/23/13
Austerity doctrine exposed as flimfam
The Colbert Report, 4/23/13
Austerity’s Spreadsheet Error
The Mermaid’s Tale, 4/23/13
A lesson on lessening, from economics
The Hindu, 4/23/13
Beware the nostrums of economists
The Real News Network, 4/23/13
28-year old PhD student debunks the most influential austerity study
NPR, 4/22/13
European Austerity Yields Meager Results In 2012
Spectrum IEEE, 4/22/13
IT Hiccups of the Week: Excel Spreadsheet Error Heard Around the World
Brisbane Times, 4/22/13
Austerity on trial as debate reignites
Business Insider, 4/22/13
Herndon Responds to Reinhart and Rogoff
New York Times, 4/22/13
Replicating Research: Austerity and Beyond
Very Sensitive People
BBC, 4/21/13
More Or Less, Austerity: A Spreadsheet Error?
CNN International, 4/21/13
Graduate student: Didn’t take long to find errors in prominent pro-austerity study
AlterNet, 4/21/13
Unbelievable! Bowles and Simpson Release New Deficit-Reduction Plan Based on Discredited Austerity Research
The Independent [Ireland], 4/21/13
In theory and in practice, austerity fails
The Independent [UK], 4/21/13
Osborne should choose his guides more carefully
Financial Times, 4/21/13
Perils of placing faith in a thin theory
Sydney Morning Herald, 4/20/13
The consequences of dodgy data
Quartz, 4/20/13
An economist’s mea culpa: I relied on Reinhart and Rogoff
Salon, 4/20/13
When wonks burn politicians
The Economist, 4/20/13
The 90% Question
Bloomberg, 4/19/13
Finance Chiefs Endorse Cuts as Reinhart-Rogoff Challenged
BBC, 4/19/13
Reinhart, Rogoff… and Herndon: The student who caught out the profs
New York Magazine, 4/18/13
Grad Student Who Shook Global Austerity Movement
EuroNews, 4/18/13
European austerity programmes based on Excel error?
TruthOut, 4/18/13
Media Relied Upon Discredited Reinhart-Rogoff Research To Stoke Debt Fears
The Fiscal Times, 4/18/13
Drama over Rogoff-Reinhart Paper Changes Nothing… and Everything
Forbes, 4/18/13
That Reinhart and Rogoff Committed a Spreadsheet Error Completely Misses the Point
IBN, 4/18/13
How Thomas Herndon, a student, took on Harvard economists and won
The Courier Mail, 4/18/13
EDITORIAL: Debt can be a powerful tool
The Business Times, 4/18/13
Key study on austerity may be flawed
Seeking Alpha, 4/18/13
Chart of The Day, Reverse-Causality Edition
The Guardian, 4/18/13
Making a comedy of errors: a serious story you may have missed
The Telegraph, 4/18/13
Debunking austerity claims makes no difference to Europe’s monks and zealots
The Economist, 4/18/13
The ivory fortress
BBC, 4/18/13
Austerity justification study ‘inaccurate’
NPR, 4/18/13
Despite Flaws, Harvard Economists Stand By Research
The Nation, 4/18/13
Paul Ryan’s Austerity Agenda Relies on Bad Math, Coding Errors and a ‘Significant Mistake’
Reuters, 4/18/13
Chart of the day, reverse-causality edition
Sharp-eyed student takes on famed economists over basic errors- and wins
Businessweek, 4/18/13
FAQ: Reinhart, Rogoff, and the Excel Error That Changed History
New York Magazine, 4/18/13
Meet the 28-Year-Old Grad Student Who Just Shook the Global Austerity Movement
NDTV, 4/18/13
How a student took on two big Harvard economists. And won.
Slate MoneyBox blog, 4/18/13
Arin Dube Demolishes Reinhart/Rogoff Causal Argument
Harvard Business Review, 4/17/13
Reinhart, Rogoff, and How the Macroeconomic Sausage Is Made
Forbes, 4/17/13
Reinhart and Rogoff; and The Dangers of Tipping Points, Real and Otherwise
Does Public Debt Inhibit Growth? Or Do Recessions Increase Debt?
Huffington Post, 4/17/13
Reinhart And Rogoff Pushed Partisan Austerity Argument, Now Claim Academic Neutrality
The League of Ordinary Gentlemen, 4/17/13
Reinhart and Rogoff Don’t Matter
Media Matters, 4/17/13
Major Errors Undermine Key Argument For Austerity Frequently Cited By Media
War of Ideas blog, 4/17/13
Reinhart Rogoff redux
Albany Business Review, 4/17/13
Study used to justify budget cuts may contain errors
Boston Business Journal, 4/17/13
Three UMass Profs. expose flaw in Harvard research that underpinned austerity
The Independent, 4/17/13
Harvard economists admit errors in austerity blueprint paper
Investor’s Business Daily, 4/17/13
Debt Study Flawed; Debt Crisis Still Remains
Quartz, 4/17/13
Reinhart and Rogoff’s defense is misleading and here’s why
Mother Jones, 4/17/13
Should We Be Afraid of Debt Levels Above 30%
MarketWatch, 4/17/13
Reinhart and Rogoff’s second, longer response to critique
Yahoo!Finance, 4/17/13
Did a Spreadsheet Error Cost You Your Job?
Did Harvard Economists Make an Excel Error that Led to Economic Austerity?
The Daily Beast, 4/17/13
Rogoff and Reinhart Respond
Did Reinhart and Rogoff Flub a Major Statistic?
What’s the Cost of an Excel Error?
Reuters, 4/17/13
Counterparties: R-squared regression analysis
The Guardian, 4/17/13
Rogoff and Reinhart defend their numbers
The Mirror, 4/17/13
George Osborne’s favourite “godfathers of austerity” economists admit to making error in their research
Maclean’s, 4/17/13
Why justifying austerity just got harder
CBC News, 4/17/13
Key pro-austerity study based on incorrect math
The Maddow Blog, 4/17/13
Republican response required to Reinhart/Rogoff
MSNBC, 4/17/13
Ryan’s favorite pro-austerity study filled with ‘serious errors’
The New Yorker, 4/17/13
The Crumbling Case for Austerity Economics
CNNMoney, 4/17/13
Debt’s impact on growth: Latest study doesn’t settle debate
Damn Excel! How the ‘most important software application is of all time’ is ruining the world
Time, 4/17/13
Why the Argument for Austerity Took a Big Hit Yesterday
The Wall Street Journal, 4/17/13
Reinhart, Rogoff Admit Excel Mistake, Reubt Other Critiques
The Washington Post, 4/17/13
Austerity? Oops.
Salon, 4/17/13
Whoops! Turns out debt doesn’t ruin economies
Financial Times, 4/17/13
Austerity after Reinhart and Rogoff
Rortybomb, 4/17/13
Guest Post: Reinhart/Rogoff and Growth in a Time Before Debt
Slate MoneyBox blog, 4/17/13
Further Thoughts on Reinhart and Rogoff
CNBC, 4/17/13
Why the Fuss Over Reinhart and Rogoff is Overblown
Reinhart-Rogoff Error Sparks Austerity Debate
Boston Herald, 4/17/13
Harvard deficit paper disputed
The New York Times, 4/17/13
With Debt Study’s Errors Confirmed, Debate on Conclusion Goes On
Does High Debt Cause Slow Growth?
Blame the Pundits, Too
Research on Government Debt is Challenged
Financial Times, 4/17/13
Harvard duo defend case for austerity
The Telegraph, 4/17/13
This time is different – thanks to data manipulation
Don’t worry, Prof Rogoff – to err is what makes us human
Row erupts over study into public debt as economists turn on Rogoff and Reinhart
Key research on austerity by Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart ‘contains serious errors’
Bloomberg, 4/17/13
7 Data Disasters More Embarassing Than Reinhart and Rogoff’s
Reinhart and Rogoff Never Made a Good Case for Austerity
Reinhart-Rogoff on Debt and Growth: Fake but Accurate?
Reinhart-Rogoff Acknowledge Mistake in 2010 Paper Cited by Ryan
Reinhart-Rogoff Paper Cited by Ryan Faulted by UMass Economists
Finfacts Ireland, 4/17/13
Top US economists accused of dodgy calculations on debt impact
Quartz, 4/16/13
How influential was the Rogoff-Reinhart study warning that high debt kills growth?
Fixing this Excel error transforms high-debt countries from recession to growth
Mother Jones, 4/16/13
Quote of the Day: Excel Error Destroys the World
The Daily Beast, 4/16/13
Austerity Guru Voodoo
The Dish, 4/16/13
The Austerity Typo?
Reuters, 4/16/13
UPDATE 2-Influential economic study on austerity may be flawed
Esquire The Politics Blog, 4/16/13
Math is Hard
Think Progress, 4/16/13
What The Austerity Paper’s Intellectual Collapse Tells Us About Modern Journalism
11 Republicans Who Cited a Faulty Study To Push For Drastic Spending Cuts
New Research Undermines The GOP’s Austerity Agenda
The Maddow Blog, 4/16/13
‘The Excel Error Heard Round the World’
The Atlantic, 4/16/13
The Great Debt Delusion: How Math Keeps Proving Austerity Wrong
CNN, 4/16/13
Economists’ case for austerity attacked
Bloomberg Businessweek, 4/16/13
The Twitterverse Goes Nuts Over Economists’ Clash
Los Angeles Times, 4/16/13
Economists rebut, sort of, critique on high-debt, low-growth study
How an Excel error fueled panic over the federal debt
TruthOut, 4/16/13
How Much Unemployment Did Reinhart and Rogoff’s Arithmetic Mistake Cause?
The Wall Street Journal, 4/16/13
Seminal Economic Paper on Debt Draws Criticism
Is 90% Really a Sovereign-Debt Red Line? A New Paper Says No
Reinhart-Rogoff Response to Critique
Salon, 4/16/13
GOP’s go-to economics study debunked
UPI.com, 4/16/13
UMass study refutes Harvard study on federal debt ratio
Slate MoneyBox blog, 4/16/13
Is The Reinhart-Rogoff Result Based on a Simple Spreadsheet Error?
Reinhart and Rogoff Respond
The Guardian, 4/16/13
How much unemployment did Reinhart and Rogoff’s arithmetic mistake cause?
The Hill, 4/16/13
Researchers claim ‘serious errors’ in GDP study cited by deficit hawks
Business Insider, 4/16/13
Shocking Paper Claims that Microsoft Excel Coding Error is Behind The Reinhart-Rogoff Study on Debt
Breaking: Reinhart/Rogoff Shot Full of Holes
Huffington Post, 4/16/13
Influential Reinhart-Rogoff Pro-Austerity Research Riddled With Errors: Study
The Washington Post, 4/16/13
Austerity’s foundations continue to crumble
Is the evidence for austerity based on an Excel spreadsheet error?
The New York Times, 4/16/13
Reinhart-Rogoff, Continued
Response From Reinhart and Rogoff
A Study That Set the Tone for Austerity Is Challenged
Holy Coding Error, Batman
Financial Times Alphaville, 4/16/13
Raining on Reinhart and Rogoff
Financial Times Money Supply, 4/16/13
Reinhart-Rogoff Initial Response
Marketwatch Markets Stream blog, 4/16/13
The spreadsheet error in Reinhart and Rogoff’s famous paper on debt sustainability
Wall Street Pit blog, 4/16/13
Austerity Research Fail
AdvisorOne, 4/16/13
Oops! Reinhart-Rogoff Research Tripped Up by Typo
The American Prospect, 4/16/13
Reinhart and Rogoff’s Theory of Government Debt is Dead
US News & World Report, 4/16/13
How an Excel Error Helped Lead the World Into Austerity
How a Slip of the Finger Changed the Economic Policy Debate
Foreign Policy, 4/16/13
Were Reinhart and Rogoff wrong about the debt-growth connection?
On the Economy, 4/16/13
Not to Pile On, But…Correcting Reinhart and Rogoff
Lawyers, Guns & Money, 4/16/13
But Austerity Is Science!
Daily Kos, 4/16/13
Researchers finally replicated Reinhart-Rogoff, and there are serious problems
The Globe and Mail, 4/16/13
Bad math? Reinhart-Rogoff study on perils of debt called into question