Statistically Insignificant Thoughts November 12, 2009
Posted by Michael McCarthy in : Uncategorized , trackback“The most reliable way to forecast the future is to try to understand the present.”
-John Naisbitt
The NBA season is upon us and it is important for a franchise to understand where they are and where they are going, in order to make sound business decisions. As any good statistician will tell you, 6-9 games are too small of a sample size from which to pull any significant insights. So with that disclaimer, here is a look at some teams, records in parentheses (all stats from Basketball Reference):
Phoenix Suns (8-1) – Phoenix has been the talk of the NBA. With an older roster seemingly rejuvenated, their explosive start has been head-turning. However, it has come with a relatively easy schedule. Five of the teams they have faced are in the bottom 10 of the league, according to SRS, with only 2 games against top 10 teams (Miami and Boston). A fall may be coming soon.
Boston Celtics (8-1) – Boston has been more than impressive, with a point differential more than 50% than any other team (currently +16.2). However, they have played only two above-average teams (Cleveland and Phoenix). Though SRS still has them way above the other teams, we will see how they hold up when the harder part of the schedule arrives.
Miami Heat (6-1) – Of the four one-loss teams (the Lakers being the fourth), Miami has been the most under the radar. Currently, they have the second best point differential, and a difficult schedule, having faced only one team from the bottom 10. Their defense has been stifling, so if they keep that up, they may be in for an unexpectedly great year.
Orlando Magic (6-3) – Orlando has to be worried about their defense. Last year, their top ranked defense carried them through the playoffs. As of today, their defense is below average. If they do not improve, Orlando’s season will be a lot shorter this year.
Cleveland Cavaliers (5-3) – Cleveland has to be the biggest disappointment so far. Their defense has been stellar, as usual under Mike Brown, but their offense is currently below average. John Kuester, the de facto “offensive coordinator” last year, left to become the Pistons head coach, and the Cavs have felt it. They have also had a relatively easy schedule so far, having played only one top ten team, so Cleveland may be in for tough times ahead, if they do not fix their offense.
Chicago Bulls (4-4) – Chicago is similar to Cleveland (great defense, no offense), but they have had a more difficult schedule thus far, putting them in a solid position. They could be a top playoff team, though they will have to improve their offense to do so.
Washington Wizards (2-6) – So far, Washington has faced 6 of the top 11 teams so far, without Antawn Jamison and with a new coach. So of all the teams with poor records, they are the most likely to bounce back and make a run for the playoffs.
The NBA season is shaping up to be an exciting one, with lots of great teams and players. Is any one watching it, though? Next week, I will take a preliminary look at attendance at games this year.
Comments»
I can’t seem to pay attention util it comes time for the eastern conferences 8th seed battle between teams about 10 games below 500. As a Knick fan I just hope for Lebron and Bosh in 2010.
Feels like I made that comment years ago!! I just checked and wow the Bulls just took over the 8th spot in the East. I guess it’s time to start following the NBA.
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